El Niño and climate change: what it really means for travel
15 July 2026
2026 has already given the travel industry a preview of what's coming. Record heat warnings across Europe. Heatwaves in Southeast Asia. Coral bleaching off the coast of Thailand. Weaker monsoons in India. Behind most of these headlines, you'll find the same two words: El Niño.
For travel professionals, this isn't just a weather story. It's a business story. Here's what's happening, what it means for your clients and your sales, and what you can start doing about it today.
Climate change and El Niño: what's the difference?
Climate change is the long term shift in global temperatures and weather patterns, driven mainly by greenhouse gas emissions. It's the slow, steady rise behind hotter summers, changing rainfall and more frequent extreme weather.
El Niño is different. It's a natural cycle. Every two to seven years1, the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean near South America warm up, and that warming ripples out to affect weather across the whole planet. Some regions get hit with drought. Others face heavier rain or stronger storms.El Niño starts in the Pacific but its impact is felt globally, and with climate change, the effects add up.
That's exactly what's happening in 2026. Scientists are calling it a Super El Niño, one of the strongest ever recorded, layered on top of a planet that's already warmer than it used to be. The result is a season of travel disruption that touches nearly every region and every part of the industry.
What this means for your clients
For travellers, El Niño is showing up in very concrete ways.
In Thailand, rising sea temperatures have caused coral bleaching along Phuket and Krabi, affecting the diving and snorkelling experiences that draw so many visitors. Across South and Southeast Asia, weaker monsoons mean drier landscapes, hazier skies and less predictable outdoor conditions.
In parts of Europe, heat domes are pushing travellers toward indoor activities, evening tours and cooler destinations further north.
Flights aren't spared either. Extreme heat can affect aircraft performance, sometimes forcing planes to carry less fuel or cargo, or avoid takeoff during the hottest hours of the day. Shifting jet streams add another layer. They can push storms into new flight paths, increase turbulence, and create stronger wind shear. That makes departures less predictable and reroutes more common. The result is more delays, more cancellations, and higher fuel costs.
So what will travellers want going forward? More flexibility, and often out of necessity. Refundable bookings, shifting travel dates, and choosing cooler regions are quickly becoming the norm rather than the exception.
What this means for your business
For travel businesses, these disruptions translate directly into numbers.
For tour operators, cancellations mean redesigning itineraries on short notice. A washed out trail or a closed reserve can force a full rebooking, sometimes with a group already on the ground. That's costly, and it puts real pressure on your team.
For travel agencies, the impact often lands on service time. More client calls. More rebookings. More explaining why a flight got rerouted or a hotel raised its rates last minute. Airlines passing on higher fuel costs after storm reroutes can also mean reimbursement requests from clients, which agencies end up managing.
For DMCs and local partners, it's about capacity. Destinations known for cooler summers, think Nordic countries or higher altitude regions, see demand climb fast. Meanwhile heat affected regions see occupancy swing hard from one month to the next. That means renegotiating contracts and adjusting availability, often with very little notice.
Across the board, rising food and accommodation costs in affected regions add pressure too. Margins get tighter. Travellers may shorten their stay or trade down on comfort to protect their budget. For agencies and operators selling these trips, that often means smaller margins for the same amount of work.
A new kind of demand is emerging. Travellers increasingly ask where it will be safe, comfortable and reliable to travel, not just where it's beautiful.
What you can do, and why now
El Niño comes and goes. It's a natural cycle that returns every few years. Climate change is different. It's not a cycle. It doesn't pass. That's exactly why now is the right moment to build the habits that make your business more resilient.
Here's how to start, step by step.
1. Measure before you plan.
You can't manage what you don't measure. Understanding the carbon footprint of your trips, your transport choices and your operations gives you a clear starting point. Carbon footprint measurement is also a good indicator of your exposure to transition risk (climate regulation, carbon pricing as well as your dependency on kerosene and flight routes). This is exactly what our Act4Travel Scanner was built for: upload your itinerary and get a full carbon analysis in seconds, translated into numbers you and your stakeholders actually understand.
2. Build a climate action plan and become resilient.
Once you know where you stand, set a direction. What are you already doing well? Where can you improve? What are the risks if you don’t change anything? A clear plan turns good intentions into visible progress, and gives you something concrete to share with your team and partners. Reducing is also to get ahead of the disruption.
3. Adapt your offering.
Diversify destinations and seasons where you can. More train offers closer to home, cooler regions, shoulder season travel,... They're becoming part of a smart, resilient product mix. An evolving offering, backed by a clear plan, turns last-minute changes into proactive adaptation. Instead of managing that shift trip by trip, build it into your product mix. That's the diversification that protects your margins and make you less vulnerable to costs & climate-retaled disruption.
4. Communicate and turn transparency into a sales advantage, not just a compliance box.
Travellers want to know the impact of their trip. In numbers they trust and actually understand. Clear CO₂e data with daily equivalents helps them make informed choices, and it builds real credibility.
Businesses need this too. Corporate clients are already asking for scope 3 data for their own CSRD and ESG reporting and compliance. Many travel businesses now get these requests directly from their own B2B clients. Offering that data isn't just a nice extra. Clear and detailed CO₂e data, with daily equivalents is becoming a real differentiator, and a way to stand out from competitors who can't answer these questions yet.
5. Support climate projects that build resilience.
Giving back in line with your travel carbon impact, through certified projects that protect ecosystems, restore forests or support local communities. It's a meaningful way to act on your footprint while strengthening the destinations you depend on. The corals dying in different parts of the world, land becoming increasingly arid, the forests under drought stress are also the destinations your business runs on. Supporting certified projects that protect these ecosystems isn't just a contribution gesture. It's a direct investment in the durability of your own offering.
None of this needs to happen overnight. But it does need to start now. At Greentripper, we help travel businesses take this step by step, with tools and consultancy built specifically for the sector. Whether you're just getting started or ready to go further, we're happy to walk you through it.
Curious where to begin? Get in touch or measure your first trip today for free with Act4Travel Scanner.
Image https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-strongest-el-nino-ever
